[warn-l] Frances

[Mike Nie]

In my email yesterday, I detailed how Frances may affect the Cincinnati
tri-state area as well as much of the eastern US.  Things are still
basically the same, although now, 24 hours later, a couple things have
occurred.  First, the forecast is becoming more reliable with each model
run
because there is less time for deviations.  Secondly, with each model run,
adjustments are made based on new data.  The storm has also weaken
somewhat.

That being said, I'll point out that most of what I said yesterday still
applies.  However the models have now factored in that the storm has
slowed
down and may slow further.  The forecast for Tuesday morning now has the
position in east-central Alabama, instead of Northern Alabama/Tennessee.
The means it will take longer to get here.  The latest models now extend
to
Wednesday when Frances is expected to be around Lexington, KY.  Another
thing I've noticed is that the last few models seem to be trending the
storm
with a little more tendency of a right (eastward) turn.  It's not that
significant now, but if it continues the position could be quite different
than thought yesterday.  Keep in mind that this is a HUGE system and a
change of a couple hundred miles might not be significant in the amount of
rain a particular point will see.

I would like to reiterate that I am not an expert.  I am only providing an
opinion based on what I am seeing in the maps and forecasts.  You can
follow
the same information by visiting the web site of the National Hurricane
Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.  The conditions and forecast forecast
will probably change somewhat by landfall which is now expected around
Saturday evening.

Mike Nie - KB8VMX
Public Information Officer
Weather Amateur Radio Network




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